terça-feira, novembro 02, 2004
Volatile numbers push states to front of race
Kathy Kiely USA TODAY
ORLANDO — John Kerry campaigns here this morning. President Bush had his turn Saturday, while Kerry running mate John Edwards was in Daytona Beach. On Sunday, Kerry was in nearby Tampa.
ORLANDO — John Kerry campaigns here this morning. President Bush had his turn Saturday, while Kerry running mate John Edwards was in Daytona Beach. On Sunday, Kerry was in nearby Tampa.
The blitz of campaign stops in central Florida reflects how intensely focused the presidential race has become before Tuesday's election. The battle to determine who will lead the nation is down to a handful of states, which the candidates are visiting again and again. They are the states that Bush and Kerry need to win to reach 270 electoral votes and capture the White House. (Related link: Bush, Kerry nearly deadlocked)
As the campaign draws to a close, the race remains close in about a dozen states. In Michigan, a state that Democrat Al Gore won in 2000, polls show Bush within striking distance of Kerry. The president visited Saturday, forcing Kerry to counter with a stop on Monday. In New Hampshire, a state Bush won four years ago, Kerry now has a narrow lead.
Polls show Bush with a narrow lead in Nevada, a state he won four years ago. New Mexico, a state that went for Gore by 366 votes, remains too close to call. Colorado leans Republican, but the Kerry camp is pinning its hopes on a surge of Hispanic voters, drawn to the polls by a chance to vote for Ken Salazar, the Democratic nominee for the U.S. Senate.
Here's how the race shapes up in six other key states where USA TODAY polled late last week:
Florida: 27 electoral votes
Four years ago, the Supreme Court's decision to end the six-week recount here gave Bush Florida's electoral votes and the presidency. This year, both parties have urged Floridians to take advantage of the state's early-voting provisions, and voters responded in droves. Most experts expect early voting here to break records.
According to the USA TODAY poll, it already has: Of 1,300 registered voters in the poll, 30% said they had already cast their ballots.
Lars Hafner, a Democrat who represented St. Petersburg in the state Legislature, thinks that may be an important factor behind Kerry's showing. Bush had a 51%-43% lead last week. The most recent poll shows Kerry ahead among likely voters, 50%-47%.
Hafner says that heavy turnout for early voting is building momentum for Kerry.
"People tend to follow trends," Hafner says.
The poll showed Kerry making some gains among Florida's female voters, who favor him 54%-41%.
Pennsylvania: 21 electoral votes
Bush's 50%-46% lead among likely voters in the USA TODAY poll in this state puts him in position for a big upset. Gore won Pennsylvania with 51% of the vote four years ago, and the state now has a Democratic governor, Ed Rendell.
Among the larger group of registered voters, Kerry led by 2 percentage points.
Though many polls have shown a tight race, some Pennsylvania analysts continue to give Kerry an edge because of the Democratic Party's historical ability in presidential years to turn out voters in Philadelphia and Pittsburgh. "I think it's very hard for Bush to win Pennsylvania," says Terry Madonna, a political scientist at Franklin and Marshall College in Lancaster and director of the Keystone Poll.
But Madonna acknowledges that Bush's effort to turn out conservative voters in the center of the state is unprecedented. "I don't think we fully understand all the dynamics at work," he says.
Ohio: 20 electoral votes
Since Kerry sewed up the Democratic nomination last spring, no state has received more visits from him and Bush than Ohio. The state is a traditional presidential bellwether. Four years ago, it went narrowly for Bush. The USA TODAY poll gives Kerry a 50%-46% edge, up from last week when he had a 1-percentage-point advantage.
Bill Binning, a political scientist at Youngstown State University who has been active in Republican politics, says he believes Kerry has a chance of winning Ohio. But he adds: "I don't know if it's going to be within the margin of litigation." A lawsuit already has been filed challenging the eligibility of some newly registered Ohio voters.
Binning says Ohio voters share the president's positions on social issues but are "disheartened by the economy."
Minnesota: 10 electoral votes
Nowhere is the collapse of independent candidate Ralph Nader illustrated more vividly than here.
A state that likes independents so much it made pro wrestler Jesse Ventura its governor for four years, Minnesota gave Nader 5% of the vote in 2000. But according to the USA TODAY poll, he now has the support of only 1% of Minnesotans.
Bush and Vice President Cheney have made a combined 18 visits to Minnesota since March in a state that Gore won by just 2 percentage points four years ago. But Nader's disintegration appears to have helped this year's Democratic nominee: The poll gives Kerry a 52%-44% edge.
Wisconsin: 10 electoral votes
Gore won this state by less than 1 percentage point in 2000. Bush and Kerry are making all-out efforts to win Wisconsin this year, making multiple visits to the state in the closing days. But the latest USA TODAY poll gives Bush a comfortable 52%-44% lead. The president has been ahead since August.
Bush and Kerry are to hold dueling rallies today on opposite banks of the Milwaukee River, just a few blocks and one hour apart.
Iowa: 7 electoral votes
The poll shows this state, which Gore narrowly won four years ago, still a dead heat. Bush's 48%-46% advantage is within the 3-percentage-point margin of error. Another poll, released Sunday by The Des Moines Register, showed Kerry with a 48%-45% lead, also within the poll's margin of error.
This is another state where early voting can be a factor. In 2000, Bush led in the Election Day balloting by 7,200 votes, but he lost the state because Gore had a 11,000-vote advantage in early voting. Early voting has been underway here for more than a month.
# posted by Rui Ferreira @ 1:42 da manhã 
